I hope you’ll forgive another blog post focusing on the death rates caused by the pandemic. I am all too aware of how these statistics represent so much individual sorrow and suffering. It’s therefore always vital to keep that in mind when analysing data.
However, my recent post about South Korea’s low death toll got me thinking about the overall global position. And I am equally amazed by what story these figures appear to be telling. So please allow me one more blog about the statistics and then I will leave well alone for a while.
Put simply, why is there such a huge discrepancy in the Covid-19 death rates between east Asia and western Europe? For example, how is it that the death toll in five major European countries (Italy, Spain, France, UK, Germany) is so far nearly 90,000? Whereas in five major east Asian countries (Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and Malaysia) the number of deaths is so far less than 700?
The combined populations are nearly the same: around 320 million against around 300 million. So let me repeat that headline figure. Nearly 90,000 deaths against less than 700.
Of course, I have to add some caveats. These official figures may not be reflecting the whole story, things could change drastically over the coming months and there are some cultural, structural and other differences between the various countries. However, this is still a staggering contrast isn’t it?
Four of the five European countries mentioned above are in the G7, the group comprising the majority of the most advanced economies on the planet. However, in passing, I should be fair to Germany whose death toll is much lower than the other four mentioned.
You will see that I haven’t so far mentioned the biggest member of the G7 – America, the richest country on earth, which currently has more than 45,000 deaths. I also haven’t yet referred to China, the world’s second richest country. It has officially reported just 4,632 deaths, though some believe this may be too low an assessment.
The burning question is this. Why are many Asian countries succeeding in saving the lives of more of their citizens than many nations in Europe and the US? The common denominators in Asia are widespread pre-emptive community testing, rigorous contact tracing and effective pandemic planning. There may well be a host of other reasons.
Whatever the explanations, I find these comparisons increasingly disturbing. Many western governments would appear to have missed the boat in protecting their populations effectively in the first wave of the virus. But, as Europe is preparing to ease its lockdown restrictions, are we taking radical action now to implement what would appear to be the obvious lessons from Asia? Can we be satisfied with just flattening the next curve rather than trying to crunch it?
Finally, let me zoom out still further and give the overall summary of death figures for the whole world. These are taken from the reliable Worldometer database I have mentioned before.
Today the global figures of reported deaths are: Europe 108,003: North America (including the Caribbean) 48,613: South America 4,336: Asia (including Turkey, Iran and the Middle East) 15,523: Africa 1,197: Oceania (including Australia and New Zealand) 88.
There are many revealing and worrying narratives lurking in these figures. However, one neglected area is Africa where there are fears that countries with undeveloped health systems could be overrun in the months ahead.
Yesterday the United Nations also warned that the current collapse in the global economy could lead to an increase in famines breaking out in parts of the developing world and a general rise in poverty levels. In a future blog I hope to look at what is being done to mitigate these problems.
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